Forecasting the Future –
start with the past and add in some Black Swans
This is the Index for a series of online papers which I will gradually create and formulates the structure of my work. It may easily be adjusted where I consider a major element needs re-inforcing.
The Starting Points:
– the growth of knowledge, innovation and implementation
– The Significance of Cities – the growth of the cities, The role of architecture and engineering in society, new materials,
– The Brain, neurons, synapses, bionic man, neurology,
– Genetics; ; stem cells; gerontology;
– Finite Resources
– The role of women / the role of religion and culture,
– The increase in power/productivity,
– The global village, media, the internet & communications,
AND recent breakthroughs that are not yet in widespread use, plus.
Updated 21st March 2012. The Wall, of course, can you turn it into a benefit, a feature or a tourist attraction. The only thought I’ve had is to use it for a climbing wall. Invite two laders from six clibing clubs to get their ideas for the routest and how to fix the safety pulleys for the belays; and to see if they want to be invited to have excluive use for a week in return for controlling it’s use.
………………………………….. Feb 2012 Some thoughts on Albufeira, Portugal. Looking with new eyes.
“They” have spent a fortune with no immediate returns… worse still, “They” don’t know how to solve the problem “They” created.
Albufeira is aFeb 2012 Some thoughts on Albufeira, Portugal. Looking with new eyes. beautiful town; Due South so no jet lag, and a short flight with short airport transfer; Blue sky; Sandy Beach; Oranges; Clean, fresh and sparkling Atlantic Air; Friendly People; Mediterranean Diet; Wintertime Sun and warmth; good wine and port;
Lots of ‘Me Too’ very little uniqueness,
The Next Generation need to create a vision of what they want.
They’ve got a huge debt problem – so secede from Portugal and the EU and immediately default. They’ve got a vast number of empty properties which need to be filled for the bulk of the year, every year.
The Marina in Albufeira is so bad it’s difficult to know where to start – let’s fill the Albufeira marina with yachts less than 34 ft LOA – moorings free if yachts are made available or local skippers for skippered day charters; let’s paint the blocks white – lets plant orange trees everywhere – let’s move the monthly market down here – also a mobile crane to lift small boats (
Generally de-clutter Albufeira eg wring, cables, street signs, road markings (ban cars and lorries except between …0); plant orange trees everywhere you have an empty space; immediately repair any pavements; reduce the size of the fountains; fix the one desolate sea-front building asap; reduce the bus fares so that people don’t need cars; remove the plastic menu cards and employ staff who can speak foreign languages ( you’re in a global fight for foreign visitors) make the place photograph friendly; three strawberry festivals; fresh dates;
All elected officials and the top three/four layers of Civic servants to resign and retire on one third pensions as their decisions have meant we can’t afford to employ them or pay their pensions – in their place an emergency team creates itself . the APC Albufeira People’s Co-operative gets moving.
If construction developments in Albufeura do not markedly move forward within six months, then APC take-over and using volunteers get them smart and usable, or at least tidier.
Give the problem to your youngsters, they have to clear up this mess and create a good life for their families. One hint, Start with the least cost/ fastest profit items first.
Drivers, waitors and waitresses, skippers and crew, managers, retail people of all types, boatyard staff, entrepreneurs, accountants, lawyers, doctors, nurses, teachers, gardeners, hair stylists, manicurists, agriculturalists, agronomists, water supply engineers, chefs, cleaners, laundry staff,
Hold a Top Chef; Top Restaurant; Top Hotel awards; Top Photograph competition.
Thank you.You all made constructive comments about “Tomorrows’ Winds”which I have tried to respond to, so now we have “Tomorrows’ Tides”
Previously you said:
Very imaginative and stimulating, it’s a damned good read. I couldn’t put it down.”
“That was great, when will the next be available?”
“Highly imaginative view into one possible outcome of a highly technological society in the future . Optimistic, good fun , easy to read , amusing little twist at the end. I enjoyed it . Lets have the next one!”
“I felt he could have written a much larger book or even given some of his ideas a book of their own to explore them more fully. I’m now intrigued to see how many new ideas are in his next book.”
For new readers the first book “Tomorrows’ Winds” is now available free of charge on Kindle. It’s an hour’s read, so try it, see what you think.
All the books are now on Kindle. If you don’t have a Kindle, you can download the App to your iPhone, your Windows PC, your Mac, iPad or Android phone. – no Kindle required. Just click here to download the one for the Windows PC from Amazon. http://tinyurl.com/2uajty4
Someone said “Everybody’s got one book in them” so if you write an new episode using the theme or the characters, send it to me and I’ll publish a collection as “Tomorrows’ Vortices,” giving each author due credit.
PS “Everyone has one book in them” so write an episode of two to fifteen thousand words, using the theme or the characters, send it to me and I’ll publish a collection of them as “Tomorrows’ Vortices,” giving each author their full credit. Let’s combine all our ideas.
Cliff Jenkins, 4 Julian Court, Wilmot Road,, Shoreham by Sea, BN43 6NG,01273 708433. 07951677379, See my website at yoolaa.co.uk
Fiction, fantasy or a fascinating forecast – It’s your choice
Extra cost-effective housing in towns and villages.
Update 16th Oct 2010. What space have we got in the centre of our towns and villages? For me the answer is the carparks whether as part of a shopping complex or the civic ones or corporate or office car parks, even better over pub and railway station car parks.. We could offer existing owners the planning opportunity for residential or small office or retail. In the event that they do not go ahead then the opportunity could be open to anyone to …. (see below.) And then again we could build over the traffic islands and the adjacent roads.
Original entry, 7th September 2010:
I was travelling through Steyning this morning and saw the large car park at the medical centre and also the fairly substantial village car park. Then in Shoreham By Sea I passed the staff car park for the Adur Centre and there are various shoppers car parks. Then there are the hospital car parks in Worthing and Southwick, plus the shoppers car parks at Holmbush. All full of cars.
I have been aware for many years that we are in desperate need of houses which can be reasonably afforded by our young people.
So I wondered if there might be a way to bring these two thoughts together.
I wonder whether we could offer a two hundred and ninety nine year leases (ninety nine years is too short) for the air above the car parks. The idea being to build structures where the ground floor is car parking, as at present, though with the upper floors available for housing. Let’s say three floors of housing. There should be no so-called “affordable housing” as these are effectively only available to ‘key workers’ (civil servants) which therefore makes it even more difficult for everyone else.
Whatever sites are chosen they must be served by public transport.
The result will be to bring people to live in the shopping areas, bring life into villages and enable our young people to buy their own homes locally.
Who, What, Why, When, Where and How. Options need to be created without preconceptions, indeed challenging existing habits.